28.2.09
Saturday Ride
Spent 2 hrs on the trainer today watching the end of Transporter 3 and Thick As Thieves. The first movie was really bad while the second on was ok. I spent 40mins total in my threshold zone and about 10mins doing tempo. The rest of the time was spent warming up, recovering from the brutal 10mins intervals and cooling down.
It got tougher to hold some of the zones as the ride went on, but it felt good to get the HR up and hold it there.
It got tougher to hold some of the zones as the ride went on, but it felt good to get the HR up and hold it there.
26.2.09
Gasoline Tax
The National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission is proposing a gasoline tax, thereby declaring their membership in Mankiw's Pigou Club. The amount under discussion is substantially less than what he prescribes, but it is a step in the right direction.
25.2.09
Really? Really?
The guy who runs Bank of America thinks that acquiring Merrill and Countrywide was a good idea and will pay off in the future. Huh? What does he know that we don't?
24.2.09
WOW
I way underestimated the amount of money the US government has spent so far. It's not $1.7T, but $2T. Not a huge amount, but when you're measuring in billi...., no wait trillions, 17% is non-trivial. They've committed almost $9T, but have only spent a fifth so far.
Early? Or Late? Pass
Who's with Rick? I am. [FreedomWorks.org]
What's a copula? [Wired]
Mortgage payments are beginning to converge to rent. [WSJ]
The gas lobby. [WSJ]
What's a copula? [Wired]
Mortgage payments are beginning to converge to rent. [WSJ]
The gas lobby. [WSJ]
23.2.09
China Has The US By The Balls
The average Chinese consumer saves way more than she spends. The Chinese government has taken these saving and purchased roughly $1T of US Treasuries. This money is then lent to the US consumer so she can spend more than she earns. Turns out, a lot of what she buys is imported from China. In other words, China's savings is financing the sale of their exports to the US.
22.2.09
Donuts + Cycling = Chris Horner
From Lance Armstrong via Twitter:
[Levi Leipheimer via Twitter]
I'm liking Chris Horner even more now. His post-stage dash to In-N-Out Burger elevated him and now he's bringing in donuts for the pre-stage breakfast. This begs the question: "What's he eating during the stage?"
Horner and his GF just walked into the bfast room with 2 big boxes of donuts. Oh lord, I've almost seen it all now.
[Levi Leipheimer via Twitter]I'm liking Chris Horner even more now. His post-stage dash to In-N-Out Burger elevated him and now he's bringing in donuts for the pre-stage breakfast. This begs the question: "What's he eating during the stage?"
21.2.09
End Of The World Puts
Warren Buffett sold put options that would force him to pay $40B if various stock market indices go to zero. When he sold them, he figured that they would expire worthless and he'd keep the premium. However, these indices are now plunging and these options are becoming less out-of-the-money. Since these puts are MtM, as the markets plunge and volatility increases, Berkshire must take balance sheet right downs.
Madoff Movie
I was thinking today about who could play Bernie Madoff in the movie. Dustin Hoffman, Anthony Hopkins or Gene Hackman? It might be a slightly boring movie though. We could watch him not trading, generating phony documents and wooing famous people in invest.
20.2.09
This Can't Be A Good Sign
Apparently, Madoff had not made an actual trade for over 13 yrs. He must've been spending all his time faking trade confirmations and wooing new investors.
Everything Is Down
Nat gas traded below $4/MMBtu, the DOW is in the 7330's, the TSX is sub 8000, crude is off 1.62 to $37.86. Fortunately the despair can be hedged with another falling asset. Gold is the only thing going up and may hit $1000 by the end of the day.
I wonder how much money the US government needs to throw at this in order for things to turn around? $5 tril? $7 tril? Taking Bush's $.7 tril, Obama's $.7 tril, bailout of Wall St at about $.2 tril, housing and auto bailout at $.1 tril, we're currently at $1.7 tril (keep in mind that I'm just trying to remember all the numbers I've read about in past few months and I may be off...) and nothing.
I wonder how much money the US government needs to throw at this in order for things to turn around? $5 tril? $7 tril? Taking Bush's $.7 tril, Obama's $.7 tril, bailout of Wall St at about $.2 tril, housing and auto bailout at $.1 tril, we're currently at $1.7 tril (keep in mind that I'm just trying to remember all the numbers I've read about in past few months and I may be off...) and nothing.
19.2.09
First Pass
Your information is about to be divulged [NYTimes]
Grim Canadian housing outlook [Globe And Mail]
Tiger may be in the hole [Clusterstock]
Record Unemployed in the US [Reutuers]
Grim Canadian housing outlook [Globe And Mail]
Tiger may be in the hole [Clusterstock]
Record Unemployed in the US [Reutuers]
18.2.09
Profile
This is one of my go to trainer rides. I stay in my endurance gear (level 2/5) the entire time and just adjust the resistance on the trainer. I've got the Tacx Flow. It's good for base building since you get your HR up, but since you're capped at your endurance watts, you don't induce anything close to threshold.
Westjet: The Last One Standing
I say, let Air Canada go down. They don't come close to WestJet in terms of service or business model. WJ has never gotten government assistance and AC just keeps going to the trough.
First Pass
Dismal housing numbers out of the US today may be a good thing. [Clusterstock]
Interesting relationship between shipping and commodity-driven exchange rates. [Bloomberg]
It's comforting to know that the BofC governor is worried about how much debt we all have. [Globe And Mail]
Did Stanford set off a bank-run?? [Reuters]
The GBP is down on calls for quantitative easing in the UK. [Guardian]
Interesting relationship between shipping and commodity-driven exchange rates. [Bloomberg]
It's comforting to know that the BofC governor is worried about how much debt we all have. [Globe And Mail]
Did Stanford set off a bank-run?? [Reuters]
The GBP is down on calls for quantitative easing in the UK. [Guardian]
17.2.09
First Pass
IEA: Oil Going Right Back To $150 Again [Business Insider]
Stanford investigation sparks fears in Antigua [Reuters]
U.S. oil falls to $37 on demand concerns [Reuters]
An overview of the proposals to fix the financial system [Vox]
Markets, dollar tumble in early trading [Globe And Mail]
Oil Falls Below $36 as Deepening Recession Cuts Fuel Demand [Bloomberg]
Lloyds facing further writeoffs as HBOS loan losses mount [Guardian]
US shares dive on doubts over rescue stimulus [Times UK]
Stanford investigation sparks fears in Antigua [Reuters]
U.S. oil falls to $37 on demand concerns [Reuters]
An overview of the proposals to fix the financial system [Vox]
Markets, dollar tumble in early trading [Globe And Mail]
Oil Falls Below $36 as Deepening Recession Cuts Fuel Demand [Bloomberg]
Lloyds facing further writeoffs as HBOS loan losses mount [Guardian]
US shares dive on doubts over rescue stimulus [Times UK]
16.2.09
Tour Of California Stage 2
Pretty exciting stage today. A break of about 10 or so got out early and went over the first climb together. They started the final climb with 3 minutes on the main field, but Levi attacked from the bottom, bridged the gap and took over the top of the GC. The stage was won by Thomas Peterson on the Garmin squad.
The conditions were pretty miserable, but the sun did make a few brief appearances. Rock Racing was looking ok at the front of the peloton for the first part of the day, but once the final climb began they were nowhere to be found.
Popovych lead out Levi at the start of Bonny Doon and then once he began to slow, Levi just started to fly. He motored up the climb and passed the fragmented break. He looked really fit and comfortable going at a pretty torrid pace. Astana will now have to control the race right until the end.
The conditions were pretty miserable, but the sun did make a few brief appearances. Rock Racing was looking ok at the front of the peloton for the first part of the day, but once the final climb began they were nowhere to be found.
Popovych lead out Levi at the start of Bonny Doon and then once he began to slow, Levi just started to fly. He motored up the climb and passed the fragmented break. He looked really fit and comfortable going at a pretty torrid pace. Astana will now have to control the race right until the end.
In-N-Out Burger + Cycling = Chris Horner
From Lance Armstrong on Twitter:
That's my kind of post-ride meal: two patties and two slices of cheese. Love it.
Getting massage and Horner comes in. He's just back from the race. Johan and I were like, "where have u been?".
Reply - "I was at In and Out Burger". What?? He ordered a double-double (xtra onions), fries, coke, and a strawberry shake. Wow.
That's my kind of post-ride meal: two patties and two slices of cheese. Love it.
15.2.09
Watching The ToC
Here is a great way to watch The ToC. It's Versus out of the US plus the stage profile and all of the time breaks. You'll need to have Flash installed and a reasonable amount of bandwidth.
It's shaping up to be a good race. Looks like a few top guys dropped out today and the weather probably sapped a lot of energy out of the entire field. Francisco Mancebo has the leader's jersey, but Astana is not too far behind.
Lance's TT bike and few other Astana bikes were stolen over night. Apparently the truck was unmarked so the thieves may not have known what they were stealing until it was stolen.
It's shaping up to be a good race. Looks like a few top guys dropped out today and the weather probably sapped a lot of energy out of the entire field. Francisco Mancebo has the leader's jersey, but Astana is not too far behind.
Lance's TT bike and few other Astana bikes were stolen over night. Apparently the truck was unmarked so the thieves may not have known what they were stealing until it was stolen.
Svein Tuft
[velonews.com and Graham Watson]He came in 9th, one spot ahead of Lance, in the Tour of California prologue. He was 4.2 seconds behind Cancellara, averaging right around 50 km/h. That is a fantastic result!
14.2.09
I Think I'm In The Wrong Line Of Work
This guy and his hedge fund made 67M USD in less than half an hour shorting Lloyds Banking Group. The stock tumbled huge after a company it recently took over was about to report a massive loss. It's not certain that he's even closed out his short, so there may be more to be made.I like seeing short sellers do well; especially in this market where shorting was banned at one point. It helps to keep the companies 'honest'.
Stocks also seem to have massive moves downwards way more often than upwards. Nice to see someone capitalizing on some company making a fool of itself.
Paulson May Have Made $67 Million in Lloyds Plunge [Bloomberg]
13.2.09
First Pass
Jim Chanos, SAC Snared In Wall Street Research Scandal [Cluster Stock]
Europe Economy Collapses [Cluster Stock]
Madoff: A Family Affair? [Portfolio.com]
European GDP shows worst contraction ever [Globe And Mail]
Nearly 700 at Merrill in Million-Dollar Club [NYtimes]
Europe Economy Collapses [Cluster Stock]
Madoff: A Family Affair? [Portfolio.com]
European GDP shows worst contraction ever [Globe And Mail]
Nearly 700 at Merrill in Million-Dollar Club [NYtimes]
12.2.09
That Was Quick
China’s Economy Shows Signs of Recovery on Stimulus [Bloomberg]
Who knows how reliable the data is. Command economies are notorious for inventing 'official statistics'.
Who knows how reliable the data is. Command economies are notorious for inventing 'official statistics'.
Elizabeth Kreutz
She's got some great photos of Lance and the Astana boys training and racing. Go here, click on Index then on Lance's Comeback. The shots from California are amazing. Makes me want to get out there and ride.
11.2.09
First Pass
Plunge in exports spurs first trade deficit in 30 years
[Globe And Mail]
Credit Suisse Reports SF6.02 Billion Loss on Trading [Bloomberg]
Has Obama's Presidency Already Failed? [Clusterstock]
IEA Revises 09 Oil Demand Again, Sees 1 M Barrel Drop [Business Insider]
EIA: Industrial Natural Gas Demand To Fall 5.1% in 2009
[CNN Money]
Showing the Money [Portfolio.com]
Regime Uncertainty, Anyone? [The Austrian Economist]
The Treasury's Financial Stability Plan [Econbrowser]
[Globe And Mail]
Credit Suisse Reports SF6.02 Billion Loss on Trading [Bloomberg]
Has Obama's Presidency Already Failed? [Clusterstock]
IEA Revises 09 Oil Demand Again, Sees 1 M Barrel Drop [Business Insider]
EIA: Industrial Natural Gas Demand To Fall 5.1% in 2009
[CNN Money]
Showing the Money [Portfolio.com]
Regime Uncertainty, Anyone? [The Austrian Economist]
The Treasury's Financial Stability Plan [Econbrowser]
10.2.09
Canada Is Still In Relatively Good Shape
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
Canadian banks are typically leveraged at 18 to 1--compared with U.S. banks at 26 to 1. [Newsweek]
This stands out:
Canadian banks are typically leveraged at 18 to 1--compared with U.S. banks at 26 to 1. [Newsweek]
This stands out:
The Toronto Dominion Bank, for example, was the 15th-largest bank in North America one year ago. Now it is the fifth-largest. It hasn't grown in size; the others have all shrunk.
Lance and The Hour Record
Will Lance make an attempt at the record or is he just testing out equipment? He's on a track bike and the new Trek TT bike.
First Pass
UBS posts biggest Swiss bank loss [Globe And Mail]
GM Cutting 10,000 Jobs, Reducing Pay as Much as 10% [Bloomberg]
Israelis Vote in Volatile Contest for New Leader [NYTimes]
Treasury Aims to Strengthen Banks [WSJ]
Carney expects ‘muted' recovery [Globe And Mail]
GM Cutting 10,000 Jobs, Reducing Pay as Much as 10% [Bloomberg]
Israelis Vote in Volatile Contest for New Leader [NYTimes]
Treasury Aims to Strengthen Banks [WSJ]
Carney expects ‘muted' recovery [Globe And Mail]
9.2.09
These Guys Must Find This So Painful
Watch this. CNBC is just paying lip service to these guys. They have to be bullish at all times otherwise they have no raison d'etre.
Taleb and Roubini are advocating a paradigm shift. One of their main arguments is that the way the finance world operates is built on flawed premises and assumptions. CNBC need to brush up on their Kuhn.
Taleb and Roubini are advocating a paradigm shift. One of their main arguments is that the way the finance world operates is built on flawed premises and assumptions. CNBC need to brush up on their Kuhn.
Wanna Make Some Mad Money?
Apparently you can get a return of 25% by shorting Cramer's stock picks. I mean, how is this guy even relevant anymore. The fact that people watch him at all blows me away. You're better off asking the guy who parks your Bentley for stock picks.
Morning Links
GM, Chrysler May Get Bankruptcy to Protect U.S. Loans [Bloomberg]
Total Taxpayer Bill: $9.7 Trillion [Cluster Stock]
Deficit Spending: A Scenario Analysis [Cato Institute]
Paradox of Thrift [Econbrowser]
Nissan to cut 20,000 jobs worldwide [Guardian]
Rate cut leaves homeowners paying no interest [Times UK]
Housing starts plunge by 11% [Globe And Mail]
Canada’s Dollar Falls as U.S. Bank Plan Delay Curbs Risk Demand [Bloomberg]
Total Taxpayer Bill: $9.7 Trillion [Cluster Stock]
Deficit Spending: A Scenario Analysis [Cato Institute]
Paradox of Thrift [Econbrowser]
Nissan to cut 20,000 jobs worldwide [Guardian]
Rate cut leaves homeowners paying no interest [Times UK]
Housing starts plunge by 11% [Globe And Mail]
Canada’s Dollar Falls as U.S. Bank Plan Delay Curbs Risk Demand [Bloomberg]
7.2.09
Base Miles in Feb
Went for a ride outside today. I think it got up to a balmy 8 degrees celsius, but the 30 km/h headwind on the way out made it feel much colder. We flew back at about 40 km/h without really having to work, since the headwind was now pushing us along.
6.2.09
Sounds Sensible
Greg Mankiw offers his view on the correct path for stimulus. He acknowledges that his plans does not address the housing bubble or the continuing Wall St. issues. His plan would most likely have a decent effect during a run-of-the-mill recession. It seems to me that he has only addressed the smallest piece of the pie.
5.2.09
Great Title
The Failure of Models that Predict Failure: Distance, Incentives and Defaults.
By Uday Rajan, Amit Seru and Vikrant Vig
Abstract:
Using data on securitized subprime loans issued in the period 1997-2006, we demonstrate that as the degree of securitization increases, interest rates on new loans rely increasingly on hard information about borrowers. As a result, statistical default model fitted in a low securitization period breaks down in the high securitization period in a systematic manner: it underpredicts defaults for borrowers for whom soft information is more valuable (i.e., borrowers with low documentation, low FICO scores and high loan-to-value ratios). We rationalize these findings in a theoretical model that highlights a reduction in lenders' incentives to collect soft information as securitization becomes common, resulting in worse loans being issued to borrowers with similar hard information characteristics. Our results partly explain why statistical default models severely underestimated defaults during the subprime mortgage crisis, and imply that these models are subject to a Lucas critique. Regulations that rely on such models may therefore be undermined by the actions of market participants.
By Uday Rajan, Amit Seru and Vikrant Vig
Abstract:
Using data on securitized subprime loans issued in the period 1997-2006, we demonstrate that as the degree of securitization increases, interest rates on new loans rely increasingly on hard information about borrowers. As a result, statistical default model fitted in a low securitization period breaks down in the high securitization period in a systematic manner: it underpredicts defaults for borrowers for whom soft information is more valuable (i.e., borrowers with low documentation, low FICO scores and high loan-to-value ratios). We rationalize these findings in a theoretical model that highlights a reduction in lenders' incentives to collect soft information as securitization becomes common, resulting in worse loans being issued to borrowers with similar hard information characteristics. Our results partly explain why statistical default models severely underestimated defaults during the subprime mortgage crisis, and imply that these models are subject to a Lucas critique. Regulations that rely on such models may therefore be undermined by the actions of market participants.
Tour of Califorina
The Tour of California starts on Feb 14 and runs until Feb 22. Lance, Levi, Carlos, Thor, Mark, George, Christian, Dave, Floyd, Tom, Fabian and Jens will all be there. It is the premiere stage in the U.S. now that the Tour de Georgia is without a title sponsor (if my memory serves me correctly.
The irony of the TofC is its title sponsor: Amgen, a drug company that makes EPO. EPO has legitimate uses including the treatment of anemia, but as anyone who follows cycling knows, it is one of the most widely used doping products. I would not be surprised if there at least 2 positive tests at the race.
The top guys are not in peak form yet so expect some unknown riders to try for some stage wins. Having said that, these guys are all competitors and once they get going they may begin to duel on the climbs and during the TTs.
The irony of the TofC is its title sponsor: Amgen, a drug company that makes EPO. EPO has legitimate uses including the treatment of anemia, but as anyone who follows cycling knows, it is one of the most widely used doping products. I would not be surprised if there at least 2 positive tests at the race.
The top guys are not in peak form yet so expect some unknown riders to try for some stage wins. Having said that, these guys are all competitors and once they get going they may begin to duel on the climbs and during the TTs.
4.2.09
Markopolos Testimony
This guy testified in front of Congress that him and some friends were dubious about Madoff's returns as far back as 2000. He rails the SEC for being staffed by incompetent, lazy, lawyers who know next to nothing about finance did not want to take on the Ponzi scheme.
First Cigar of the Season
Smoked a Cuaba on Saturday. The cigar was very good, but the frigid temperatures detracted from the enjoyment. Maybe I will not count this as the first cigar of 2009, but instead take a do over some time when it warms up. This may mean waiting until May unless a hefty, weekend, Chinook decides to drop in.
New Ridley Noah
This is the new offering from Ridley, just in time for the start of European season. A nice looking bike that will hopefully tear people away from their precious Cervelos.
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